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Saturday, January 24, 2009

Director of Policy Planning

Photo from FP

Anne-Marie Slaughter confirmed as Director of Policy Planning at the State Department here. Excerpt below:

So it's no great surprise that the Princeton newspaper the Daily Princetonian reports that Slaughter has "confirmed in an e-mail to Wilson School students this evening that she will be leaving the Wilson School to serve under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton." Slaughter also told students that, "When Senator Clinton offered me a position, I told her that I could only take a limited public service leave and that I would be commuting back and forth to Princeton on weekends," the paper reports. The Cable has previously reported that Washington foreign-policy hand and former John Edwards advisor Derek Chollet will be the deputy director of the Office of Policy Planning.

About the Director of Policy Planning on Wiki:

The Director of Policy Planning is the United States Department of State official in charge of the Department's internal think tank, the Policy Planning Staff. The position of Director of Policy Planning is one of the most prestigious in the State Department, and has traditionally been held by some of the most intellectual members of the U.S. foreign policy establishment. Former Directors of Policy Planning include two National Security Advisors, a President of the World Bank, and several presidents of the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Reconsidering the Domestic Demand Expansion in Taiwan

While the Taiwan government--both central and domestic-- and public opinion bandwagons on the Domestic Demand Expansion Project (擴大內需方案), they should keep in mind opinions on the other side of the argument. 

Grew Mankiw has recently wrote an article on New York Times, "Is Government Spending Too Easy an Answer," reminding the Obama administration certain unsolved puzzles regarding Keynesian prescriptions. 
Economic downturns, Mr. Keynes and Mr. Samuelson taught us, occur when the aggregate demand for goods and services is insufficient. The solution, they said, was for the government to provide demand when the private sector would not. Recent calls for increased infrastructure spending fit well with this textbook theory.

But there is much to economics beyond what is taught in Econ 101. In several ways, these Keynesian prescriptions make avoiding depressions seem too easy. When debating increased spending to stimulate the economy, here are a few of the hard questions Congress should consider...
As I've been saying in the past, policy discussions in Taiwan politics tend to focus on minutiae instead of core theoretical arguments. In this case, as usual, the aforementioned counterpoint has received nearly no attention in our media.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Harsh Reality: Sweatshops and its Alternatives

See Nicholas Kristof's article: "Where Sweatshops Are a Dream."
Mr. Obama and the Democrats who favor labor standards in trade agreements mean well, for they intend to fight back at oppressive sweatshops abroad. But while it shocks Americans to hear it, the central challenge in the poorest countries is not that sweatshops exploit too many people, but that they don’t exploit enough.

Talk to these families in the dump, and a job in a sweatshop is a cherished dream, an escalator out of poverty, the kind of gauzy if probably unrealistic ambition that parents everywhere often have for their children.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Paul Kennedy on the Decline of America

I have always loved reading Paul Kennedy's writings. Below are excerpts from his article on WSJ today:
As I suggested at that time, a strong person, balanced and muscular, can carry an impressively heavy backpack uphill for a long while. But if that person is losing strength (economic problems), and the weight of the burden remains heavy or even increases (the Bush doctrine), and the terrain becomes more difficult (rise of new Great Powers, international terrorism, failed states), then the once-strong hiker begins to slow and stumble. That is precisely when nimbler, less heavily burdened walkers get closer, draw abreast, and perhaps move ahead.

If the above is even half-true, the conclusions are not pleasant: that the economic and political travails of the next several years will badly crimp many of the visions offered in Mr. Obama's election campaign; that this nation will have to swallow, domestically, some very hard choices; and that we should not expect, even despite a surge in international goodwill towards America, any increase in our relative capacity to act abroad decisively or in any sustained way. A rather wonderful, charismatic and highly intelligent person will occupy the White House, but, alas, in the toughest circumstances the U.S. has faced since 1933 or 1945.

Kissinger and Brzezinksi on US-China Relations

See: "Taiwan shouldn't be obstacle in U.S.-China relations: Kissinger."
Two former American diplomats placed the onus on China to diffuse tension in the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, following comments from Chinese officials claiming that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan may strain ties with China even as the two countries cooperate more closely.

"I do not think Taiwan should be a fundamental obstacle to our relationship," Kissinger said yesterday on the sidelines of the conference. Kissinger served as secretary of state from 1973 to 1977 under presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford and played a key role in Nixon's 1972 visit to China.

Brzezinski, 80, veteran diplomat who was national security adviser under President Jimmy Carter and advised President-elect Barack Obama during his campaign, also downplayed the importance of Taiwan in U.S.-China ties.

"The better the American-Chinese relationship, the less salient is the Taiwan issue and the easier it is for Taiwan and the mainland to establish an increasingly organic relationship," he told reporters yesterday.

Brzezinksi and former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft put the onus on China to take steps to decrease military tensions related to Taiwan.

"If the Chinese, for example, would pull back or eliminate some of the missiles directed at Taiwan, it would make it possible for the American president to say, 'Taiwan does not need additional arms,'" said Scowcroft, who served under presidents Ford and George H. W. Bush.

"That would be a very stabilizing direction in which the two sides could go."

I agree with Scowcroft.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Chinese Navy Escorts Taiwanese Ship in the Gulf of Aden

Considering China's offer, we saw how the government responded. However, how would the government respond when a Taiwanese Company actually does request Chinese escort? 

A Chinese mainland naval fleet on Monday began to carry out an escort mission for four merchant ships including one from Taiwan in the Gulf of Aden off Somalia...

... Rear-Admiral Du Jingchen, commander of the naval fleet, said safeguarding transport in the Gulf of Aden and maintaining security of ships was the common wish of all pacifists including compatriots across the Taiwan Straits...

Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) reponse: excerpt from "ROC ship escorted by China off Somalia registered in Liberia: MAC."
A Mainland Affairs Council official said Tuesday that the Chinese navy's escort of a Taiwanese ship in the Gulf of Aden to protect it from pirate attacks was not arranged by Taiwan and that the ship was not registered in Taiwan or being used by a local company.

The council had previously said it would not request or accept assitance for Taiwanese ships from the Chinese naval fleet, but that pledge seemed to be ignored when one of the ships escorted Monday was an oil products tanker belonging to Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group named FormosaProduct Cosmos.

The MAC, however, denied any involvement in arranging the 553-nautical-mile escort and said the ship was registered in Liberia and rented out to a South Korean company.

"The MAC has in no way authorized Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) to negotiate or accept the protection of Taiwanese vessels by the Chinese naval fleet in the Gulf of Aden, " said Chao.

He stressed that Taiwan is not prepared to accept China's offer to help and has no plans at the moment to negotiate the issue.

Beijing's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) notified the SEF Dec. 12 that Taiwanese ships under attack or afraid of being attacked by Somalian pirates in the Gulf of Aden could request protection from China's naval task force through the SEF.

"There is currently no mechanism for processing requests by Taiwanese ships seeking escorts from Chinese warships in the Gulf of Aden, despite the Chinese Foreign Ministry's offer to protect Taiwanese vessels from pirates in the area," Chao said.

Now lets wait for the Presidential Office's reaction.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Freedom House Annual Report

Freedom in the World 2009 just released.
According to the survey’s findings, 2008 marked the third consecutive year in which global freedom suffered a decline. This setback was most pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa and the non-Baltic former Soviet Union, although it affected most other regions of the world. Furthermore, the decline in freedom coincided with the onset of a forceful reaction against democracy by a number of powerful authoritarian regimes, including Russia and China.
The Taiwan Foundation for Democracy will host an event on the survey's findings in Taipei, Taiwan January 13 at 9 a.m. at the Far Eastern Plaza Hotel. 

Overview here. Key regional findings, Asia for example:
The most significant progress occurred in South Asia, where several countries saw improvements linked to elections. In addition to significant improvements in Pakistan, Maldives and Bhutan, some progress was also seen in Nepal, Kashmir, Malaysia and Thailand. Declines were registered in Afghanistan, Burma, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Singapore and Tibet. China increased repression instead of delivering human rights reforms pledged in connection to hosting the Summer Olympics. 


Friday, January 9, 2009

Follow Ups: Taiwan Considering Sending Navy to Somalia

1. Excerpts from Taipei Times "Government still mulling use of anti-piracy frigates":
The Presidential Office yesterday said the government was still considering whether to dispatch naval frigates to Somalia to protect Taiwanese vessels, but said any Taiwanese business or fishing boats facing pirate threats could seek help from nearby naval fleets from other countries.

Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) said that more than 40 countries, including China, had naval fleets stationed near the pirate-infested Somalian coast.

Any of them would come to the rescue of a Taiwanese vessel out of moral obligation once it received a distress signal, Wang said...

... While Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Yang Chiung-ying (楊瓊瓔) yesterday said a deployment of naval frigates would be the right decision, KMT Legislator Shuai Hua-min (帥化民) said it was too early to talk about dispatching naval frigates to the Gulf of Aden to protect Taiwanese ships.

It was not an issue of whether the navy was capable of protecting Taiwanese ships, but one of the international community’s attitude toward Taiwan, he said....

...“An invitation for Taiwan to dispatch naval frigates to protect Taiwanese ships from pirates in the waters off Somalia would be welcomed, but it would be a major embarrassment if Taiwan’s offer to do so were rejected,” Shuai said... 

... Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Tsai Huang-liang (蔡煌瑯) added that the matter could well serve to test Chinese President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) sincerity when he made a six-point overture to Taiwan on Dec. 31 on the peaceful development of cross-strait ties.
First, the Chinese leader appeared willing to accord a certain degree of recognition to the Taiwanese government. For the sake of advancing cross-strait negotiation, he proposed that "both sides could start discussion on bilateral political relations under the special circumstances that the country is not yet unified".

Hu's words signalled for the first time Beijing's willingness to approach cross-strait relations on the basis that Taiwan is, in effect, governed by a legitimate authority.

It was a positive response to Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou's call last November for 'mutual non-denial'. Hu's move should go some way towards ameliorating, if not resolving, bilateral conflicts since Taipei insists that without mutual recognition it would be dwarfed when it enters into negotiations with Beijing.

Second, Hu called for cross-strait military exchanges leading to the creation of a confidence-building mechanism (CBM) to ensure military stability. This is the first time that Beijing has called for exchanges between the two militaries.

The idea of a CBM was first raised by former Taiwanese president Chen Shui- bian during his first term in office. At the time, Beijing dismissed the proposal on the grounds that CBMs were arrangements between sovereign authorities.

Third, Hu said that the mainland was willing to discuss with Taiwan "proper and reasonable arrangements for Taiwan's participation in international organisations" - as long as such arrangements did not create 'two Chinas' or 'one China, one Taiwan'. In other words, Hu was signalling that Beijing was open to all reasonable suggestions on Taiwan's international participation so long as they do not create false impressions.

Compared with all previous statements on this issue - they had merely expressed an "understanding of the desire of the Taiwanese", or "of the Taiwanese feeling" - the latest is clearly ground-breaking, at least in symbolic if not substantive terms.

Of course, the litmus test of Beijing's sincerity will come in May and September when Taiwan seeks observer status in the World Health Assembly, policy body of WHO, and the United Nations, respectively.

Fourth, Beijing said, for the first time, that it was willing to engage Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Never before has an official document from Beijing ever mentioned the DPP by name. The DPP used to be referred to derogatively as "some separatist forces". This time, Hu promised to "react positively" if the DPP abandoned its independence platform.

The Chinese leader also showed flexibility and tolerance when he said that the Taiwanese people's strong sense of local identity was understandable and should not be equated with separatism.

Finally, on the key 'one China' principle, there was some fine-tuning, with Beijing trying to formulate it in terms more acceptable to Taipei.

Hu said that the two sides not being unified was not a problem of split sovereignty. It was rather a legacy of the civil war in China in the late 1940s, which pitted the Kuomintang against the Chinese Communist Party.

Hence re-unification did not signify the re-creation of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity - which had never been divided to begin with - but an end to the fight between the rival political parties.

As long as both sides preserved 'the 'one China' framework', Hu promised, "anything could be discussed". It is noteworthy that he refrained from insisting on the 'one China principle' in this context, which would have suggested that 'one China' was both the pre-condition as well as the final outcome of cross-strait negotiations.

3. Complete Mandarin overture here.