Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict by Nielsen et al. (forthcoming in AJPS). Manuscript here. 

In this study we resolve part of the confusion over how foreign aid affects armed conflict. We argue that aid shocks – severe decreases in aid revenues – inadvertently shift the domestic balance of power and potentially induce violence. During aid shocks, potential rebels gain bargaining strength vis-à-vis the government. To appease the rebels, the government must promise future resource transfers, but the government has no incentive to continue its promised transfers if the aid shock proves to be temporary. With the government unable to credibly commit to future resource transfers, violence breaks out. Using AidData’s comprehensive dataset of bilateral and multilateral aid from 1981-2005, we evaluate the effects of foreign aid on violent armed conflict. In addition to rare-event logit analysis, we employ matching methods to account for the possibility that aid donors anticipate conflict. The results show that negative aid shocks significantly increase the probability of armed conflict onset.

We already know how cool AidData is, so this is definitely going to be an exciting read for people interested in the intersection of IPE and security (like me).

Theory Talks interviews Robert Bates: "Robert Bates on the Politics of Coffee, Small-N Studies, and the Crumbling Definition of the State."

Social sciences in general and International Relations in particular is preoccupied with quantitative studies. As a result, individual case studies, or, in methodologically correct language, Small-N populations, have been somewhat discredited. In this Talk, Robert H. Bates, essentially an economic historian, explains amongst others how (single) case studies are just as valid as large-N studies, how coffee can illustrate the workings of international markets, and how the definition of the State should be reconsidered.

Even though I'm extremely busy right now (facing the GRE AWA test in 24 hours), I've just got to post this one.

picture from ipezone

I was going through some regular IR, IPE blogs a few minutes ago, and I came up with this article, "Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang and Taiwan's Int'l Pol Econ." As a Taiwanese baseball fan who happens to study IPE, I would feel guilty if I don't stop and record it on my own blog. Here are some excerpts:

This fellow is far more popular than any Taiwanese politician. When he takes to the mound, the country practically stops to watch. Newspaper advertising rates soar as well on days when he pitches. Plus, a study claims that the Taiwanese Stock Exchange performs better when Wang pitches well. Why it's WangMania! Add that virtually every product imaginable bears his likeness in the ROC and you've got Chien-Ming Wang, Inc.

...

Now Taiwan's major newspapers charge a higher advertising rate for issues published on a day that Wang pitches, as well as the day after each start. The country's largest circulation daily, Apple Daily, estimates that it sells as many as 300,000 extra papers on days that carry reports of another Wang victory. Endorsements that have come Wang's way include McDonald's, Ford, E Sun Bank (one of the largest in Taiwan) and computer-maker Acer, which claims that Wang's name alone has increased its product sales by 10% and lowered the average age of its consumer by almost four years.

...

Last year a study in a Taiwanese business journal, Money Weekly, found a correlation between Wang's pitching performances and the fluctuations of the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The report attributed a 25% index rise last summer to Wang's strong June and July. "We absolutely believe it to be true," Shao says of the relationship between Wang's performance and last summer's bull market. "Psychologically, how [Wang] does has a huge effect on the Taiwanese people. If he does well, people are in a good mood, and they go out and spend money. If he doesn't, you walk around and you can see people depressed. It's a very personal matter to the Taiwanese people." (For the record, the country's stock index was up roughly 6%, through Monday, since Wang's first start this season, on April 1.)

btw, Chien-Ming Wang is the fastest pitcher in the MLB to reach 50 wins since Dwight Gooden in 1986, requiring only 85 starts.